United States GDP Analysis According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis - Paper Example

According to the annual GDP analysis report produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on the 27th of January 2017, GDP happened to have increased at the rate of 1.9 percent within the fourth quarter of the year 2016 (Analysis). In the third quarter of the same year, 2016, the reports produced by the same sources estimated the GDP increase to be at a percentage of approximately 3.5. The estimated increment between the two quarters of the same year is a reflection of positive influx contributions from the Personal Consumer Expenditure, Private Inventory Investment (PII), Residential Fixed Investment (RFI) and also spending done by the government and local business organizations. There is a deceleration that is recorded by the bureau to have occurred in the fourth quarter of the year 2016. Such deceleration is a reflection of a considerable downturn of the export activities and a consequent acceleration on a number of imports done. There is also a deceleration in the PCE resulting in the downturn of the spending of the federal government. Furthermore, there was an upturn in the investments including those of fixed nonresidential types. It should also be noticed that the price index for the purchases made particularly the gross domestic purchases increased by a value approximately 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter in comparison to the 1.5 percent recorded in the third quarter in 2016 (Analysis). The price index of PCE also increased as recorded by the bureau. The value of increment is estimated at 2.2 percent compared to the previous quarters 1.5 percent as put in the bureaus records.

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In the year 2015, the most significant growth was realized. The first quarter received a percentage deceleration of approximately 2.0 percent in comparison with the last quarter of the previous year, 2014. The Real GDP dropped by about 0.2 percent. Never the less, a relatively higher Real GDP percentage was registered in the preceding quarter. The value rose to about 2.7 percent. This value happened to have surpassed the recorded value in the first quarter by approximately 0.7 percent. Another declination in value was recorded in the third quarter. The value recorded was 2.0 percent. The fourth quarter of the same year, 2015, recorded an even lower value. The bureau registered a further 1.2 decrease considering that the quarter recorded an approximate value of 0.8 percent (Analysis). Except for the highest acceleration in the second quarter, the whole year had positive Real GDP as compared to the rest of the years in accordance with the data provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The least amount of growth happens to be registered in 2013. Three of the four quarters represent very high-value accelerations except for the second quarter where a deceleration in Real GDP in comparison to the other quarters was registered. An accelerated GDP index of 4.0 percent happened to be the highest value recorded for the whole year.

The value of the Real GDP growth rate of the U.S is expected to be approximately 2.5 percent by the end of the first quarter of the year 2017 (Trading). An estimated growth rate of about 1.9 percent is expected in the last quarter. The second quarter is expected to be at 2.1 percent while the third is estimated at 2.0 percent. The estimated rates are as a result of the fact that the inflation rate stands at 2.07 percent while the rate of unemployment in the country stands at 4.8 percent. By calculations involving the critical indicators, provided by the bureau concerned with economic analysis in the country, the forecast provided above is attainable.

Reference

Analysis, Bureau of Economic. Bureau of economic analysis. 27 Jan. 2017. Web. 12 Feb. 2017.

Trading. United States GDP growth rate forecast 2016-2020. 2017. Web. 12 Feb. 2017.

Amadeo, Kimberly. The strange ups and downs of the U.S. Economy since 1929. The Balance. The Balance, 31 Jan. 2017. Web. 12 Feb. 2017.