The Electoral Circumstances in the 6th Congressional District of Tennessee - Paper Example

Introduction

The congressional district of the United States, including the Tennessee 6th congressional district, held their elections in 2018, this year. The election results pointed towards a completely divided nation, with the Republicans moving towards expanding their control of the Senate, the Democrats took control of the house. Republicans secured seats in; Missouri, Indiana, and the northern part of Dakota, with Senator Ted Cruz holding a grand challenge from Beto O'Rourke. The Democrats had money and momentum. They captured 23 seats and over, taking the house in early returns. Democrats were not able to claim battleground of Florida; they faced mixed results in the governor's races. The analysis of this paper will be done using; party polarization, incumbency advantage, and voter turnout.

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Party Polarization

Since 2011, the sixth congressional district has been represented by Diane Black, Republican. The activities of political extremists lead to a yield of general election candidates who are non-median. Competition is good, in the United States where politically centrist districts have a fierce two-party competition, with the odds of either of the party candidates being almost equal. There are apparent tradeoffs between polarization in the Congress at substantial and fidelity of the members to the interests of the district. Over the past generation, polarization has been related to trust in the federal government (Stonecash, 2018). . The elections happened in two stages; the first candidate needed to win the party primaries, and then the candidates had to seek majorities in general elections which was done by moving to the center and bringing out the base.

A two-party competition might undermine the fidelity of a median voter. This is because first candidates must attract the attention of primary election voters, and if they survive, turn their attention to the general elections. Most candidates pay attention to the difference in the game of the two stages. The campaign and elections magazine emphasizes the significant differences in general election voters and primary election voters. Campaign managers called for strategies that brought out each candidate's central election base of voters, to suppress the possible turnout in the general elections (Jacobson & Carson, 2015) . It is well known that those who vote in the general elections are not the same ones who vote in the primary elections. Some do not even vote at all. The most significant cause of polarization is the electoral realignment associated with the fall of the new deal democratic, and the rise in support of the republican.

One of the questions asked before the 2018 midterm elections were how the popularity of Donald Trump would affect fortunes of the Republicans. Any president whose historical ratings are low would negatively impact his house races and party in Senate. But we cannot always assume that what happened might happen again since Donald Trump with his record of low favorable ratings still won the white house. Partisan polarization has grown so strong that there is an illusion that Democrats will not be able to attract voters cast by the Republicans. It has increased, but there is still some time for Trump's ratings to improve (Neiheisel & Niebler, 2013) . Whenever there was an unpopular Democrat in the white house, voters always turned to the Republicans in the congressional races. In these elections, the fight over Brett's nomination seemed to contribute significantly to the polarization of the electorate and helped republicans to gain in red districts and states. Even in a democratic wave, republicans would still be able to hold down their losses and gain some seats in the Senate. Before the elections, polarization had already taken control of both parties, with the strongest incumbents in the Republican appearing to have fallen behind the well educated, white suburban districts.

Incumbency Advantage

The new technological advantages have changed the way people get connected and informed, changing the voter's behavior. The use of social media accounts has been used to analyze the use of media technology in overcoming the barriers of communicating with voters. Politicians running for a seat in the United States achieve re-election rates that range to about ninety percent. Political newcomers and challengers experience significant barriers from incumbents and significant competition. The new technology has enabled a change in voter's behavior and has ensured that constituencies raised money for political campaigns.

The midterm elections were one of the most consequential in centuries. Democrats hoped to capitalize on the dissatisfaction of voters to in the control of the Congress. Political analysts said that a small number of races in the 50 house seats were competitive (Rieselbach, 2018). Senators ending up enjoying minimal job security due to the voters sending their incumbents back to Washington. Some of the reasons why the incumbents have enjoyed the advantage over the years are; incumbents have captured funding for the districts and home states, and have used it to offer a variety of services to win favor from their voters. One party is favored over another, through the redistricting, which has created politically lopsided seats. The rise in the cost of mounting a political campaign has created a huge financial advantage to the incumbents who have the money needed to win.

In these elections, Democrats were hoping to pick up to 23 seats from the GOP and win the control of the house. Both sides have raised an immense amount of campaign money and Republicans in their capacity, would be able to defend their majority in the house. Holding house seats, Republicans had outraised the Democrats so far, but there were more challenges faced by the GOP members. Five of the positions which were considered toss-ups were held by Democrats. These five had to spend most of their time fundraising and entered open seats to challenge incumbent in-senate races. They had raised a total of 105 dollars, traditionally not enough to win the average house seat.

Voter Turnout

As Democrats capitalized on the retirement of a large number of incumbent Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party lost control of the house. 98 seats of the 111 competitive ones were held by the republicans. In states that previously recorded voter turnout, there was a sharp increase in these elections (Hill, 2018). The enthusiasm that was generated by Beto O'Rourke in Texas was a major boost in voter's turnout, even though his defeat was narrow. Some states such as Colorado and Washington recorded also hinder numbers. Republicans are extremely happy that their party kept the Senate while the Democrats are excited on getting the house. More Americans have become engaged in politics, and more are voting. But still, there is a deeper line between parties. Both the republicans and democrats have at least two years to figure things out because possibly, Trump will also appear in the ballot.

References

Hill, D. (2018). American voter turnout: An institutional perspective. Routledge.

Jacobson, G. C., & Carson, J. L. (2015). The politics of congressional elections. Rowman & Littlefield.

Neiheisel, J. R., & Niebler, S. (2013). The use of party brand labels in congressional election campaigns. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 38(3), 377-403.

Rieselbach, L. N. (2018). Congressional Politics: The Evolving Legislative System. Routledge.

Stonecash, J. (2018). Diverging parties: Social change, realignment, and party polarization. Routledge.